ISIS is gaining more ground in fragile Libya

"Urgent. Soldiers of the Islamic State captured 21 Christian crusaders," was a barely noticed statement issued on social media last month by Isis - not in Syria or Iraq, but in Libya.
The fate of the hostages - believed to be Egyptians - remains unknown, but that is not what will worry officials in London, Washington and elsewhere. As Islamic State (Isis) in Syria gets the headlines, the group's affiliates in Libya quietly gain ground and threaten another failing state.
On January 28, the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli was attacked by Islamists in a raid that cost at least nine lives, including that of an American contractor. Again, it was Isis that quickly claimed responsibility.
According to the Tripoli-based think-tank Kalam, the situation in Libya is increasingly unstable, which, as in Syria, Isis is set on exploiting. "The continued political and military chaos following the ousting of Gaddafi in 2011 has provided an ideal situation for extremist organisations such as IS to expand throughout Libya.

Libyans loyal to Isis are said to be returning to their home country after fighting in Syria and Iraq. Photo / AP

"In the months following [the Islamist group Majlis Shura Shabab al-Islam's] declaration of allegiance to IS in October, attacks attributed to other IS-related groups have occurred across all regions of Libya," the think-tank says.
Kalam has logged all Isis-inspired activity in Libya since last July. It runs to 20 pages, and includes details of hostage videos, beheadings, public executions and processions of militants driving through towns flying the black flag now synonymous with Isis.
The think-tank says Isis now has a foothold in several towns from Tripoli to Benghazi and Sirte, as well as Darna in the east, which it controls.
In many ways, it is not surprising that Isis is gaining ground. Since Gaddafi's brutal overthrow in 2011, the country has barely been governable. Various regional and factional groups have tried to assert control and even the recognised Government has been forced to flee Tripoli and set up shop in the eastern town of Tobruk, more than 100km from the capital. It was run out of Tripoli by Libya Dawn, a loose coalition of Muslim Brotherhood types and officials from the west of the country.
The elected parliament sits in a hotel and describes its rival administration in Tripoli as a bunch of terrorists. UN-brokered talks are taking place in Geneva, and progress is slow.
"The failure of the political process has created a political vacuum," says Jason Pack, a researcher of Libyan history at Cambridge University. "There was no Isis in Libya until the failure of the political process."
Kalam estimates that there are already as many as 3000 fighters loyal to Isis in Libya, which is thought to be one of the largest contributors of men to the group's ranks in Syria and Iraq.
"They've been preparing this for a while. A lot of them fought with Isis in Syria and they're coming back home to Libya," Aaron Zelin, of the Washington Institute told ABC News.