Brazil's senate opened debate today with President Dilma Rousseff's fate in the balance, as legislators moved towards a vote on whether to impeach the once-popular leader and allow a possible trial for allegedly violating budget laws.
The outcome - which was expected after a marathon session of speeches by critics and backers - caps months of street protests and political brinksmanship that has sent South America's largest nation into deep crisis.
It also raises the prospect of more turmoil as Brazil takes the world stage soon as host of the Olympics.
Anti-impeachment protesters blocked roads with burning tyres in cities including Sao Paulo and the capital, Brasilia, as the senate proceedings got underway. Groups backing Rousseff called for a national strike.
But her support base has withered as the showdown dragged on - pulling Brazil's economy into its worst downturn in 80 years and further exposing rank corruption throughout Brazil's political establishment.
If 41 of the country's 81 senators vote to impeach her, Rousseff would be served a written notice of the decision and forced to temporarily step down. Vice-President Michel Temer would assume the presidency."We will start to breathe again," one of Rousseff's foes, Senator Magno Malta, told reporters outside the senate, "and the doctor will say the nation has shown signs of life and will be stable soon."
Senators would have 180 days to conduct hearings ahead of a final vote to determine her fate.
According to unofficial tallies by Brazilian media, at least 50 senators are planning to vote for impeachment. The final margin will be closely watched as a barometer of support for her full removal.
A two-thirds majority of the Senate will be needed to permanently unseat her, so if at least 54 senators vote for impeachment today, it will be widely interpreted as a sign that her presidency is probably finished.
Rousseff is accused of improperly using loans from government banks to patch budget gaps and fund popular social programmes. Senators must decide whether this amounts to a "crime of responsibility" under Brazilian law.
Rousseff's opponents say she deceived legislators and the public about the state of the country's finances in order to conceal her mismanagement of the economy.
She denies any wrongdoing and insists that her predecessors used the same bookkeeping tactics.
At the Vatican, Pope Francis - the first Latin American Pontiff - expressed hope that Brazil will find unity after this "time of difficulty."
Rousseff narrowly won re-election in 2014, but recent polls show that her approval rating has slumped to about 10 per cent.
Attorney-General José Cardozo, who is defending Rousseff, said he would file additional appeals to the Supreme Court, but its justices have dismissed previous attempts to halt the process.
Protesters opposed to Rousseff's impeachment held street rallies and blocked roadways in at least 21 states yesterday. Rousseff and her leftist Workers' Party have rallied supporters by painting the push to oust her as a "coup" and a threat to Brazilian democracy, which was restored in 1985 after two decades of right-wing military rule. Rousseff, 68, was jailed and tortured by the dictatorship for her activities as a leftist militant.
Rousseff showed no sign of giving up in a speech yesterday.
"I am not tired of fighting," she said, criticising former political allies, such as Vice-President Temer, who have turned against her. "I am tired of those who are disloyal and traitors. I am sure Brazil is also tired [of them], and it is this fatigue which drives my fight every day."
Last month Brazil's Lower House voted 367 to 137 to impeach Rousseff. The interim house Speaker stunned the country on Tuesday when he tried to annul that vote, but he changed his mind less than 24 hours later, clearing a path for today's vote in the Senate.
The leader of South America's biggest country faces an impeachment vote today and few think her presidency can survive.
But not many Brazilians actually understand why she might be ousted.
Dilma Rousseff is deeply unpopular, her Workers' Party is heavily involved in a multibillion-dollar graft scam at state-run oil company Petrobras, and three million Brazilians have lost their jobs in the last year alone as the economy tanks.
But she is facing impeachment for something else - allegedly breaking financial and budget laws. And that's a serious crime in Brazil, a country which battled hyperinflation in the 1980s and 1990s to become solvent this century - but which has slipped again.
What did Rousseff actually do wrong?
She is being accused of using state-controlled banks to finance popular social programmes without revealing she was doing so.
A prime example is a flagship programme for Rousseff's Government called the Bolsa Familia, or Family Allowance - in which the Government gives cash to poor Brazilian families, provided they send their children to school and ensure they get vaccinations.Alarm bells started ringing over her Government's creative accounting in 2013.
Typically, authorities give the money to a bank, which distributes it to families. The bank started complaining from 2013 that it wasn't getting regular payments from the Government and was having to use its own money to make the payments. In Portuguese, this is called "pedaling". Actually, it was more like running up a giant overdraft. In 2014, the problem got worse. There were tens of billions of dollars in late payments for programmes like these that the banks were left paying for.
Rousseff's accusers say she did this so she could spend more money on vote-winning social programmes in 2014 - the year in which she narrowly won reelection. It was only after her victory that she admitted to Brazilians that the economy was in trouble.
"If it had not been for this electoral fraud, she would not have been re-elected," said Gil Castello Branco, a former government economist and founder of Open Accounts, a nonprofit group in Brasilia which monitors public spending.
What does Rousseff's defence say?
"Pedaling is nothing more than a delay of payments," said Ricardo Ribeiro, a professor of financial law at the State University of Rio de Janeiro who has given evidence to Congress in Rousseff's defence. "It is a delay that has occurred in previous governments and years without any crime" being alleged.
This is true - but less money was involved. In 2001 and 2002, President Fernando Cardoso "pedaled" around US$290 million a year, at current exchange rates, according to Publica, a non-profit news agency. In 2013 Rousseff's Government "pedaled" US$10 billion and in 2014, US$15 billion (also at current rates). The practice worried Brazil's Federal Court of Accounts so much that it rejected her Government's 2014 accounts.
Some say Rousseff's actions were illegal.
"This is a credit operation prohibited by the law," said Julio de Oliveira, a public accounts prosecutor who gave evidence to the Senate's impeachment commission. "You are breaking a basic principle of public finances."
That sounds pretty serious.
It is. But the impeachment process that Rousseff is facing only applies to her current mandate - which began on January 1, 2015, after she won re-election. And after getting a sharp rap on the knuckles from the Federal Court of Accounts in April last year, the Government cleaned up its act - paying off most of its "pedaling" debts.
"As soon as the Federal Court of Accounts said it was not allowed, the Government stopped doing it," said Ribeiro.
Almost. In 2015, the Government "pedaled" around US$4 billion for a low-interest financing scheme for family farmers that it left the Bank of Brazil to pay - clearing the debt at the end of the year. Critics say Rousseff's actions contributed to Brazil losing its investment grade from ratings agencies.
"This had a huge cost," said de Oliveira. "It destroyed confidence."
Is there more?
There are six "decrees" Rousseff issued in 2015 that moved budget money around. Her accusers say that she did this without congressional approval and that this, too, is an impeachable offence. Her defence disagrees. One element of the arguments is what impact the decrees had on a requirement that the Government produce a spending surplus every year. In 2015, the Government ended up with a big deficit because it had to pay off its previous "pedaling".
The decrees involved US$27 billion at current rates, but only US$710 million of that was extra spending.
"This procedure that the president did with the decrees is extremely commonly used in Brazil," said Ribeiro.
What are the politics involved?
While experts debate the technical aspects of Rousseff's impeachment process, politically the game looks lost. That's because many Brazilians blame Rousseff for the country's deep recession and a vast corruption scandal they allege she failed to prevent. Her impeachment is a political judgment, not a juridical decision, many say, with senators acting like a jury.
And they will take all kinds of factors into account.
"To leave the economy heading not just for a recession but a depression with all its effects - for society this is very strong," said Istvan Kasznar, a professor of economic development, microeconomics and public finance at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Rio.
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