Israel election: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party has won a surprise victory in Israel's election

Israel -  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won a come-from-behind victory in Israel's election after tacking hard to the right in the final days of campaigning, including abandoning a commitment to negotiate a Palestinian state.

In a pre-election blitz, Netanyahu made a series of promises designed to shore up his Likud base and draw voters from other right-wing and nationalist parties. He pledged to go on building settlements on occupied land and said there would be no Palestinian state if he was re-elected.

With 99.5 percent of votes counted on Wednesday, Likud had won 29-30 seats in the 120-member Knesset, comfortably defeating the center-left Zionist Union opposition on 24 seats, Israel's Central Election Committee and Israeli media said. A united list of Arab parties came in third.
It amounted to a dramatic and unexpected victory - the last opinion polls published four days before the vote had shown the Zionist Union with a four-seat advantage.

Although Netanyahu must still put together a coalition to remain in power, his victory all but guarantees that he will be given the first opportunity to form a government, putting him course to become the longest-serving leader in Israeli history.

But the promises he made to woo ultranationalist voters in the final days of the campaign, by effectively jettisoning the "two state" aim of more than two decades of Middle East peacemaking, could have far-ranging consequences, including deepening rifts with the United States and Europe.

In a statement, Likud said Netanyahu intended to form a new government within weeks, with negotiations already underway with the far-right pro-settler Jewish Home party led by Naftali Bennett, the centrist Kulanu party and ultra-Orthodox groups.

The critical party to get on side will be Kulanu, led by former Likud member and communications minister Moshe Kahlon, who won 10 seats, making him a kingmaker given his ability to side with either Netanyahu or the center-left opposition.

"Reality is not waiting for us," Netanyahu said. "The citizens of Israel expect us to quickly put together a leadership that will work for them regarding security, economy and society as we committed to do - and we will do so."

Isaac Herzog, the leader of the Zionist Union, conceded defeat, saying he had called Netanyahu to congratulate him.

The Tel Aviv stock market was largely unmoved by Netanyahu's victory, with the benchmark Tel Aviv 100 index up marginally at mid-day.

"The market's indifference to the results apparently stems from its belief that the coalition that will be formed will be more stable than its predecessor," said Idan Azoulay, chief investment officer at the Epsilon brokerage.

HARD ROAD AHEAD
While Likud is the largest party, the process of forming a coalition is hardly assured. It needs 61 seats in the Knesset and crossing that threshold will be challenging given the amount of division across Israel's political landscape.

Netanyahu's victory will prolong the country's troubled relationship with U.S. President Barack Obama.

The White House was already angry with him for addressing the U.S. Congress at the invitation of Republican lawmakers in a bid to scupper U.S. nuclear talks with Iran, before Netanyahu's hard tack to the right in the campaign's final days.

Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator in peace talks with Israel that collapsed in April, said in a statement that Netanyahu's win showed "the success of a campaign based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people".

During much of the campaign, Netanyahu had focused on security issues and the threat from Iran's nuclear program, a message that appeared to gain little traction with voters.

The Zionist Union's focus on socio-economic issues, including the lack of housing and the high cost of living in Israel, appeared to be generating much more momentum.

But Netanyahu's move to the right, playing up fears of the spread of Islamist groups, promising no concessions to the Palestinians and raising alarm about growing support for Arab-Israeli parties, looks to have spurred his base into action.

From the Palestinian point-of-view, the results are a deep concern, raising the prospect of more settlement expansion on land they want for their own state in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as in Gaza.

If Netanyahu follows through on his pledges it would put him on a collision course with the Obama administration and the European Union, which has been weighing steps including trade measures to sanction Israel for its settlements policy.

Parliaments in historically pro-Israel countries including France and Britain have held non-binding votes favoring recognizing Palestinian independence. Western countries have generally held back from this step, arguing that a Palestinian state must emerge from negotiations, but with Netanyahu having apparently abandoned the "two state" principle of such talks, the argument is harder to make.

His victory also raises questions about what happens on Iran, with Obama determined to pursue negotiations towards a deal on Tehran's nuclear program and Netanyahu determined to scupper it, including by mobilizing domestic U.S. opinion.
The Palestinians may quickly create problems for Netanyahu as they will formally become members of the International Criminal Court on April 1 and have said they will pursue war crimes charges against Israel over its 48-year occupation of the West Bank and last year's war in Gaza.

Pre-empting those steps, Israel has suspended the transfer of tax revenue it collects on the Palestinians' behalf, holding back around $120 million a month. That has crippled the Palestinian budget and led to deep pay cuts for public sector workers.

 Benjamin Netanyahu

Instead, the Likud party grabbed at least 29 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, according to unofficial numbers from the Israeli election committee based on 99% of the vote. That gives its leaders the first chance at forming a coalition government.

The Zionist Union came in second, with at least 24 seats.

"Against all odds, against all odds, we achieved this huge victory for Likud," Netanyahu told jubilant supporters not long after the polls closed Tuesday. "We achieved the huge victory for our people. And I am proud, I am proud for the people of Israel that in the moment of truth, knew to make the right decision and to choose the real material things over immaterial things."

Rather than courting voters in the middle, Netanyahu pivoted more to the right with appeals concerning Israel's security.

Two weeks ago, he made a controversial speech to the U.S. Congress warning of any deal with Iran on its nuclear program. Then, a few days ago, he declared there would be no Palestinian state so long as he's Prime Minister -- reversing an earlier position and putting him at odds again with the Obama administration's support for a two-state solution.

And on Tuesday, he released a video on Facebook claiming leftists were bringing "huge amounts" of Arabs by bus to vote against Likud. Arabs make up about 20% of Israel's population.

"The right regime is in danger," Netanyahu said. "We have an urgent wake-up call. Bring your friends, bring your family, vote for Likud."

Those appeals appear "to have energized that right-wing base," according to CNN's Elise Labott.

Netanyahu still has to form a new government, a process that Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said he hopes will start Sunday. If the Likud leader does so -- as expected -- it will leave Israel not much different than it was before the election, with a conservative Netanyahu still the dominant force facing a dug-in opposition.

What's next?

Isaac Herzog, who led the Zionist Union, called Netanyahu to concede defeat. But he and fellow opposition leader Tzipi Livni won't go away, with Herzog insisting that "nothing has changed."

"This is not the time for coalitions and governments," Herzog said, apparently ruling out joining forces with Netanyahu as the Labor government has done before. "I think what Israel is most in need of is an alternative voice that continues to say the truth.

"And I'm telling everyone, 'Believe, a change will come.' "

No party has ever won a majority of seats in the Knesset, meaning coalition governments are as old as the modern state of Israel. The victory goes to the party leader most suited to put together a 61-seat majority. 

How does Israel's parliament work?

So there's no guarantee Netanyahu will form such a coalition and stay as Prime Minister. But he's got a better chance than anyone, and overnight Tuesday he vowed to work "quickly and responsibly to form a new government."

Official results will not be released until next week, with the process of building coalitions expected to take much longer.

"Our country's everyday reality doesn't give us the luxury for delay," Netanyahu said.

Pre-election, exit polls turn out wrong

Many woke up Wednesday questioning all those polls suggesting that Netanyahu's latest six-year term could be coming to an end.

Israeli media outlets released surveys suggesting that either the Zionist Union would win Tuesday's vote or, at least, finish in a dead heat with Likud.

Exit polls from Israel's three major broadcasters showed the two parties neck and neck, not the apparent five-seat advantage that Likud appears to have secured.

So what happened?

Pollster Avi Degani, who predicted a Likud win all along, said other pollsters relied too heavily on Internet technology and should have done more surveying by phone.

"The Internet does not represent the state of Israel and the people of Israel," Degani said, referring to modern statistical methods. "It represents panels, and the panels are biased strongly to the center."

As Netanyahu's win reverberates, one question remains: Did he gain extra seats because of an eleventh-hour surge, or were the major polls skewed from the beginning?

Palestinian official: Campaign based on denying human rights

Netanyahu maintained hard-line positions on settlements and negotiations with Palestinians, but his opposition appeared more open to talks and more focused on economic, social and other issues within Israel.

Saeb Erakat, the Palestinian chief negotiator with Israel, said, "The results of the Israeli elections show the success of a campaign platform based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of fundamental human rights of the Palestinian people."

"Such a result would not have been possible had the international community held Israel to account for its systematic violations of international law," said Erakat, who works under Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

The post-election view from Hamas, the Islamist political and militant movement that controls Gaza and is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union, appeared more resigned.

"Hamas doesn't see any difference between the Israeli parties because they all share the denial of our people's rights and keeps assaulting them (people)," said Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas spokesman, suggesting that it didn't matter much who prevailed Tuesday.

"We assure that the Palestinian resistance is strong and can impose the facts."

appears poised to keep his job as Israel's Prime Minister, declaring victory Wednesday following a bitter campaign punctuated by his last-minute appeals to right-wing voters.

For weeks, Netanyahu's Likud party trailed in opinion polls to the Zionist Union alliance that characterized him as a divisive leader not up to the task of making the lives of ordinary Israelis better.

Yet those polls turned out to be wrong.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party really won a surprise victory in Israel's election. Exit polls had forecast a dead heat but with almost all votes counted, results give Likud a clear lead over its main rival, the centre-left Zionist Union.

The outcome gives Mr Netanyahu a strong chance of forming a right-wing coalition government.
It puts the incumbent on course to clinch a fourth term and become Israel's longest-serving prime minster.
The latest tally gives Likud 30 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset, with Zionist Union on 24 seats.
In a speech to jubilant supporters in Tel Aviv after Tuesday's polls closed, Mr Netanyahu described the vote as a "great victory" for Likud, which had trailed the Zionist Union in opinion polls in the run-up to the election.
Mr Netanyahu "plans to immediately begin forming a government in order to complete the task within two to three weeks," a statement from Likud said.

Likud supporters celebrated after the exit polls were announced

The Zionist Union had been ahead in the opinion polls

It said he had already spoken to parties he saw as possible coalition partners, including right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and centrist Kulanu, which won 10 seats.
Zionist Union leader Yitzhak Herzog called Mr Netanyahu early on Wednesday to congratulate him on the result and wished him "good luck".
"Nothing has changed, we will keep fighting for a just society," he was quoted as saying by Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini congratulated Mr Netanyahu, saying the EU was "committed to working with the incoming Israeli government" and to re-launch the Israel-Palestinian peace process.
Peace talks have been on hold since a last round collapsed a year ago.

Israelis woke up Wednesday morning to find that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party came in first in parliamentary elections.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacts as he visits, at the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem following his party Likud's victory in Israel's general election. Photo / AFP

It was a stunning turnaround after a tight race that had put his lengthy rule in jeopardy. Here is how things could play out now:
How does a Government come together in Israel?
Voters in Israel choose party lists, not individual candidates, and seats in the 120-member parliament are allocated based on the number of votes each list receives. No single party has ever won an outright majority of 61 seats, requiring a major party - usually but not always the largest - to lead a coalition.
The parties have a wide range of platforms, including social or security issues or catering to needs of specific sectors in Israeli society like ultra-Orthodox Jews or Israeli Arabs. But overall, they tend to fall into one of two blocs - the nationalist and security-focused right wing or the dovish center left, which promotes social welfare programs and is more conciliatory toward the Palestinians.

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin will consult with the various parties before officially tasking someone - likely Netanyahu - with the job of forming a new coalition. If successful, he becomes prime minister again. If not, the president asks another party leader to try. With Netanyahu's natural allies holding a solid majority, he is expected to quickly form a government.
Netanyahu's Election Promises
Netanyahu focused most of his campaign on his pledges to prevent Iran from obtaining the capability to make a nuclear weapon. But as he struggled in the final days of the race, Netanyahu began taking a tougher stance on peace talks with the Palestinians in order to appeal to hard-line voters.
In a turnaround of the policy he spelled out in 2009, Netanyahu said he opposed the creation of a Palestinian state, a centerpiece of US policy, saying Islamic extremists will take over any territory Israel exits.
After largely ignoring domestic issues, he also vowed to resolve Israel's housing crisis and high cost of living - central concerns of his challengers.
How realistic are they?
The U.S and other Western powers are negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program in an emerging deal that Netanyahu abhors. Relations with the Obama Administration reached a low point early this month when Netanyahu stated his case before Congress.
It's not clear what else he can do to stymie the deal. He has hinted at a military option but that is unlikely.
Peace efforts with the Palestinians have been stalled for years, and there are no signs that they will resume anytime soon.
But Israel can expect pressure to resume negotiations. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the European Union both appealed Wednesday for a resumption of peace talks. The White House said it still believed in the two-state solution - even if Netanyahu no longer does.
With most Israelis disillusioned by years of failed peace efforts, domestic issues such as the housing crisis and growing gaps between rich and poor took center stage in the recent campaign.
Netanyahu hasn't detailed any real plan to resolve those issues, which brought hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets in 2011. But the new Kulanu Party, which focused its campaign entirely on bread-and-butter issues, is expected to play a key role in the new coalition.
Relations with the US
Netanyahu's actions during the campaign worsened already strained relations with the White House.
The Obama Administration was angered by the congressional speech, which was arranged behind its back with Republican lawmakers.
The White House said Wednesday it was "deeply concerned" by disparaging comments made by Netanyahu about Arab voters on election day and also said it was re-evaluating its positions following Netanyahu's opposition to Palestinian statehood.
Dore Gold, an unofficial adviser of Netanyahu, said the deep and longstanding ties between the two countries would overcome the latest crisis.
What about the Palestinians?
Netanyahu's re-election created new opportunities and challenges for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. With peace talks off the agenda for the time being, he can pursue his strategy of trying to bring international pressure to bear on Israel with more gusto.
However, Abbas needs to maneuver carefully in his day-to-day relations with Netanyahu to avoid an escalation that could bring down his self-rule government in the West Bank.
After two decades of failed US-led negotiations, Abbas is trying to break Washington's monopoly on brokering a deal. As part of this strategy, Abbas sought and won international recognition of a state of Palestine in 2012 from the UN General Assembly.
Earlier this year, Palestine joined the International Criminal Court in pursuit of war crimes charges against Israel - though any decision is now up to the ICC prosecutor.

Analysis: BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen, Jerusalem
In the end Israeli opinion polls told the wrong story, yet again. Benjamin Netanyahu scored a much bigger victory than the exit polls had suggested.
In the last few days of the campaign he demonstrated yet again why he is such a formidable politician. The prime minister narrowed the gap with Mr Herzog's Zionist Union, and then overhauled it, by turning sharply towards the ultra-nationalist Israeli right.
He issued a series of grim warnings about the consequences for Israel if he lost - Arabs with Israeli citizenship were voting, so his people needed to turn out.
He also made a series of promises that would worsen Israel's relations with the US and Europe if he continues as prime minister. He promised thousands of new homes for settlers in the occupied territories, and said he would not allow the Palestinians to have a state.

"This is not an easy morning for us and for those who believe in our way," Mr Herzog and Zionist Union co-leader Tzipi Livni said in a statement.
Mr Netanyahu had vowed not to allow the creation of a Palestinian state, while Zionist Union expressed support for a two-state solution and promised to repair relations with Palestinians and the international community.
In the wake of the vote, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said Palestinians would step up their bid for statehood.
"It is clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government, so we say clearly that we will go to the International Criminal Court in the Hague and we will speed up, pursue and intensify" diplomatic efforts, he told AFP news agency.
Almost 72% of those eligible voted in Tuesday's election. Turnout was four points higher than the previous election in 2013.
Israel's form of proportional representation always produces smaller parties and coalition government. None has ever won an outright majority under Israel's proportional representation voting system.
The Joint Arab List, an alliance of Israeli Arab-dominated parties that united for the first time, came third with 14 seats.

The main players

• Benjamin Netanyahu: Victory for his Likud party could mean a fourth term for the veteran of Israeli politics. His hawkish stance on the Palestinians and Iran have made him popular with the right but a divisive figure.
• Yitzhak Herzog: The co-leader of the centre-left Zionist Union electoral alliance, Mr Herzog has accused Likud of depressing Israeli living standards and campaigned against Mr Netanyahu's foreign policy. He has tried to counter Mr Netanyahu's accusations he is "soft" by pointing to his special forces background.
• Tzipi Livni: Mr Herzog's co-leader in the Zionist Union, Ms Livni is a prominent advocate of seeking more co-operation with the Palestinian Authority.
• Moshe Kahlon: A former Likud welfare and communications minister under Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr Kahlon's centre-right Kulanu party could play kingmaker in a coalition.