Boko Haram, Election, Security and Manipulation of the Military

The waiting game has ended. Elections will not hold this month. That was the outcome of the series of meetings INEC held with stakeholders on Saturday. The Nation reports the shift may return Nigeria to the old era where umpires shifted goal posts in the middle of the game.

The postponement of the general elections may not be the end of the matter. The people have more hurdles to cross in the march of electoral democracy. According to analysts, those behind the polls shift have a hidden agenda. As the agenda unfolds, further damage to the electoral process can only be averted, if all Nigerians are vigilant and bold to resist it.

With the postponement by INEC Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, Nigeria has regressed. Old military tricks are being reenacted. Now, propaganda is displacing the truth again...

President Goodluck Jonathan has looked for an excuse to justify his request for postponement. He ultimately stirred controversy when he told Nigerians, through his Service Chiefs, that he as Commander-in-Chief could not guarantee their security, if the commission insisted on February 14 and 28 dates.

It was the same trick employed by self-styled military President Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, almost 22 years ago, to scuttle the historic June 12, presidential election believed to have been won by businessman-turned politician, Chief Moshood Abiola, who was the candidate of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). The Minna, Niger State-born military leader wanted to extend his hegemony and prolong military rule. But, he ended boxing himself into an unmitigated crisis. Till date, the ghost of June 12 is hunting him.

At the height of his rule, Gen. Babangida, who implemented the longest transition programme in Nigeria, wanted to – by all means and at all cost – abort the presidential election scheduled for June 12, 1993. He said the military did not want the lateAbiola. At midnight, a judge was drafted to grant an injunction against the election, few hours to the exercise. But, as the legal luminary, the late Chief Gani Fawehinmi (SAN), pointed out, soldiers voted massively for Abiola even in their barracks.

Today, the linkage may be quite different, but the issue is the same – security. In 1993, it was alleged that Abiola, a wealthy man, was disliked by the military because he was perceived as a threat to security. It was inexplicable. The voting party by the army put a lie into the fabrication. In 2015, it is still security, but, in a different context.

Rationalising the curious request for poll shift, the Service Chiefs said that they could not ensure the safety of voters, polling officers and materials during the exercise.

Also, an aide of the President, Dr. Doyin Okupe, explained that, if the elections are allowed to proceed as scheduled, they would aggravate the security situation in the Northeast, where the dreadful sect, Boko Haram, has been on the prowl.

Observers have pointed out that government’s inability to guarantee security is an admission of failure by the President, who sworn to an oath and the constitution that the security of life and property will be his priority. However, hiding under the excuse by the military to postpone polls has its implications.

It is a double tragedy for Nigerians. First, they cannot be protected, based on President’s remarks about the inability to guarantee security. Second, the President is now using the military’s excuse to deny Nigerians of their right to vote or demand for a leadership that will guarantee security.

During the anti-February 14 and 28 campaigns, Jega replied the paid agents that the commission was ready to conduct the polls. But, he later succumbed to pressure to change the date. Thus, the feeling now is that INEC has lost its independence to government’s blackmail.

If that amounts to a crisis of undue interference, only the law can resolve it. But, the interference may have sent a clear signal that government’s interference can still mar the electoral process at any stage. This means that electoral reforms have been an unfinished business in the country. INEC’s independence should not be subjected to the whims and caprices of the government. It is only logical that when INEC is not free, the ballot box cannot be safe.

Instructively, the PDP has labelled Muhammadu Buhari, a retired General and former Head of State, as a dictator. But, stakeholders may now perceive the President as a dictator in a civilian garb. When the government insisted on a six-week extra time, contrary to INEC’s projection, it meant that the hand of the government is heavy on the umpire, which had no alternative than to cave in, almost under duress.

Another question is: how far can the exhumed IBB trick go? Does it have prospect?

Since 2011, there were signs that the President had a view to sell to the polity. Shortly after his inauguration, he reflected on the succession battles that have characterised Nigeria’s democracy. To stem the rivalry, antagonism, acrimony and bitter competition, he canvassed a single-term of six years for the executive. The President called for a constitution amendment. But, the idea could not fly.

According to analysts, the President was trying to dodge the general election to avoid an imminent defeat. Others alleged that his party is trying to create a logjam to frustrate the opposition. But, the puzzle is: can the election be put on hold for ever?

Yet, there is an unanswered question. Will Boko Haram insurgency end before March 28? The damage to the military psyche by the struggle for power is also enormous. According to commentators, Nigerians have to be convinced that the military was not used to scuttle the previous date, just as IBB used the military to truncate ‘June 12’.

The military may have suffered under the administration as they suffered under previous administrations. A professional military is a vital asset to the nation. To maintain professionalism and political neutrality, it must be insulated from partisanship. But, the institution has been abused and misused by the powers that be. This has led the former Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Salihu Ibrahim (rtd), to describe it as a military of anything goes.

Besides, the military has been reduced to a shadow of itself due to obsolete equipment.

When the Service Chiefs told Nigerians that 100 abducted children have been rescued from Boko Haram camp and there is no evidence; when military top brass said that they knew the whereabouts of the abducted girls and they kept a sealed lip thereafter; and when soldiers said that they were ready to guarantee security for voters and they later ate their words; then, it is indisputable that the military needs help.

 

With the suspect postponement of the elections due to pressure on INEC, the Presidency has launched a two-pronged war to ensure that President Goodluck Jonathan wins the election at all

cost.

The two strategies are to stop Muhammadu Buhari, the APC Presidential Candidate from contesting for the post of president against Jonathan and the replacement of the INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega, with a less independent-minded person as soon as possible.

Jega, it was gathered, had been described by hawks around President Jonathan of being too independent-minded and ‘uncooperative’ despite being given the job by the president.

Jega might have played into the hands of the evil forces by agreeing to shift the elections...

Legal war to disqualify Buhari
According to Vanguard, competent sources said that the move to remove Jega and the legal fireworks against Buhari, would be taken up simultaneously this week given the timeframe made possible by the shift.

The retired general is to be prosecuted by a team of legal luminaries for ‘lying on oath’ that he had a school certificate with the Nigerian Army when he knew that it was untrue. The plaintiffs are said to have settled for trying Buhari for alleged ‘perjury’ instead of outright non-possession of certificate following legal advice that the latter would be more difficult to prove within the time at their disposal.

Vanguard learnt that although Jega reluctantly succumbed to pressure from the Presidency and its security chiefs to shift the polls, he might still not be allowed by the forces to conduct the rescheduled elections between March 28 and April 11. Vanguard gathered from competent sources that the Presidency was no longer comfortable with Jega and was, therefore, working tirelessly to get him out of the commission to pave the way for a more ‘trusted hand’ to conduct the rescheduled elections.

It was learnt that the forces arrayed against the INEC boss had convinced the President not to renew Jega’s tenure, which is expected to lapse on June 13 this year. The forces, it was learnt, felt that Jega was rather too ‘difficult’ to deal with, having not allowed himself to be dictated to by anyone since assuming office like other appointees of the government.

It was learnt that in a bid to sweep off Jega from his seat without raising any dust, he would be asked to comply with the civil service procedure by proceeding on his three months terminal leave with effect from March 1, this year since he is expected to retire on June 13.

S-West gov’s brother may replace Jega
Vanguard gathered that in his place, the Presidency was considering bringing in another academic from the South-West, who is currently heading a tertiary institution in the country. The professor of Political Science and International Relations is said to be a sibling of a serving governor in the South-West, who is a close ally of President Goodluck Jonathan and his party.

Competent sources also told Vanguard last night that although the name of the academic had been made known in security circles, it was not clear whether the man had been cleared by the forces with a view to sending his name to the National Assembly for possible confirmation, as required by law.

Working against Jonathan’s interest
As a prelude to removing Jega from office, some close allies of the President had started accusing him of taking side with the opposition to undermine the success of Jonathan and his party in the next election. Earlier last week, Jonathan’s godfather, Chief Edwin Clark and other prominent politicians from the Southern part of the country had accused Jega of working against the interest of the president and the PDP and asked him to resign from the commission.

Although no evidence was adduced by Clark and his group to support their allegation, they nonetheless called for the arrest of Jega. Similarly, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, on Saturday, said Jega had lied about the state of the commission’s preparedness for the conduct of the election.

In the same vein, the National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Mr. Olisa Metuh, accused INEC of working with the opposition to deny its members of permanent voter cards in some states. He called on the security agents to probe the commission over the development.